Our method
Lecôteur is in testing. We calculate each match in several ways and keep the one that best matches what really happens. The first full results arrive at the end of November.
How it works
- 1
Every morning, the robot reads the day's match stats: form, attack, defence, shots, players. From our own database: a year of matches.
- 2
It turns them into percentage chances, recalculated as soon as the official line-ups come out, often an hour before.
- 3
After the match, it marks each pick by itself, on the final stats, with the same rule for everyone.
How our reading of the stats has changed
- OctoberThe decisive player rather than the scorer alone
We back the player who scores or assists. The safe pick always comes from the favourite.
- OctoberShots on target seen from both sides
What a team usually puts on target, and also what its opponent concedes, over a year of matches.
- OctoberFinal stats, like the bookmakers
Shots are re-read after the match, once the official figures are final.
- NovemberThe squad counts, not just the club's name
A club that lost its best players in the summer is no longer judged on last season as it was.
- NovemberLess sure of ourselves when needed
“Both teams to score”: our chances were re-adjusted after comparing them with what really happened.
- NovemberNational teams
No league behind them: we read their last 8 official matches, and the market weighs more when levels are too far apart.
How we correct ourselves
Every week, we compare our percentages with reality. When we announce 60%, the pick should come in about 6 times out of 10.
If it comes in more often, we were too cautious. Less often, too sure of ourselves. Either way, we adjust.
What counts, what is in testing
- ⚽ Winner, total goals, both teams to score, shots on target, 2 decisive players (who score or assist)
- 🏒 NHL: winner, total goals, decisive player when we give him at least 50%
- 🎾 Winner, number of sets, first set, total games
- 🏀 NBA, 🏸 badminton
- Ligue 2, Süper Lig, Argentina, Colombia
- National cups
- National teams and friendlies
- “Riskier” picks, better paid
- “Info” picks
- The tennis tie-break
The site in 1 minute
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